Tropical Storm Isaias
Tropical Storm Isaias forecast path & cone map
When winds arrive tropical-storm-force (39+ mph) · NHC probabilities, 5 days
| Location | Earliest TS winds could begin | Chance TS winds | Chance hurricane winds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gfam 290N 870W | Fri 1 AM – Sat 1 AM | 75% | 30% |
| Pensacola, FL | Fri 1 AM – Sat 1 AM | 56% | 9% |
| Whiting Fld, FL | Fri 1 AM – Sat 1 AM | 54% | 8% |
| Gfam 280N 890W | Fri 1 AM – Sat 1 AM | 50% | 18% |
| Mobile, AL | Fri 1 AM – Sat 1 AM | 47% | 6% |
| Destin Exec Ap | Fri 1 AM – Sat 1 AM | 47% | 5% |
| Panama City, FL | Fri 1 AM – Sat 1 AM | 45% | 7% |
| Montgomery, AL | Fri 1 AM – Sat 1 AM | 34% | 0% |
| Gulfport, MS | Fri 1 AM – Sat 1 AM | 31% | 4% |
| Apalachicola | Fri 1 AM – Sat 1 AM | 29% | 3% |
Time window = the earliest NHC period (CDT) with a 10%+ chance that tropical-storm-force winds begin (NHC “earliest reasonable arrival” — be ready before it); “—” = under 10% in every period. Locations and percentages as published by NHC.
Watches and warnings NHC, verbatim
No coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Where is Isaias now?
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
Advisory timeline
- #3 · Wed 4:00 AM CDTDepression becomes Tropical Storm Isaias · Forecast to rapidly strengthen over the next couple of days — Tropical Storm, 40 mph
- #2 · Tue 10:00 PM CDTTropical depression forecast to quickly strengthen — Tropical Depression, 35 mph
- #1 · Tue 4:00 PM CDTTropical depression forms over the Gulf of America · Forecast to strengthen quickly — Tropical Depression, 35 mph
Forecast discussion NHC forecaster, excerpt
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.1 West. Isaias is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A continued east-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday.
Cities near the forecast track within 300 km · 16-day forecasts and community photos
Latest photos from the area Weathershot community · last 72 hours · time and conditions as photographed
