Hurricane Nolo CAT 1
Hurricane Nolo forecast path & cone map
When winds arrive tropical-storm-force (39+ mph) · NHC probabilities, 5 days
| Location | Earliest TS winds could begin | Chance TS winds | Chance hurricane winds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buoy 51002 | Sat 2 AM – Sat 2 PM | 95% | 57% |
| Necker | Mon 2 AM – Tue 2 AM | 50% | 10% |
| South Point | Fri 2 PM – Sat 2 AM | 50% | 1% |
| Buoy 51003 | Sun 2 AM – Mon 2 AM | 43% | 5% |
| Fr Frig Shoals | Tue 2 AM – Wed 2 AM | 36% | 7% |
| Buoy 51101 | Tue 2 AM – Wed 2 AM | 15% | 1% |
| Nihoa | Tue 2 AM – Wed 2 AM | 15% | 0% |
| Kailua-Kona | Sat 2 PM – Sun 2 AM | 10% | 0% |
| Hilo | — | 7% | 0% |
| Gardner Pinn | — | 7% | 0% |
Time window = the earliest NHC period (HST) with a 10%+ chance that tropical-storm-force winds begin (NHC “earliest reasonable arrival” — be ready before it); “—” = under 10% in every period. Locations and percentages as published by NHC.
Watches and warnings NHC, verbatim
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24-36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Where is Nolo now?
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Advisory timeline
- #20a · Fri 8:00 AM HSTNolo could cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding on the Big Island of Hawaii this weekend — Hurricane, 85 mph
- #19 · Fri 2:00 AM HSTCatastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding possible on the Big Island of Hawaii into the weekend — Hurricane, 85 mph
- #17 · Thu 2:00 PM HSTAir force reconnaissance en route to investigate Nolo — Tropical Storm, 70 mph
- #16 · Thu 5:00 AM HSTNolo strengthening · Heavy rainfall could begin late today over the Big Island — Tropical Storm, 60 mph
- #15a · Thu 2:00 AM HSTNolo forecast to intensify into a hurricane late today — Tropical Storm, 50 mph
- #14a · Wed 8:00 PM HSTTropical Storm Nolo holding steady and is expected to turn northward overnight · Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Hawaii County — Tropical Storm, 45 mph
- #13a · Wed 2:00 PM HSTTropical Storm Nolo strengthens slightly · Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Hawaii County — Tropical Storm, 45 mph
- #12 · Wed 5:00 AM HSTInterests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system — Tropical Depression, 35 mph
Forecast discussion CPHC forecaster, excerpt
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 155.5 West. Nolo is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest and west with an increase in forward speed is forecast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nolo will remain well south of the main Hawaiian Islands.