Hurricane Polo CAT 1
Hurricane Polo forecast path & cone map
When winds arrive tropical-storm-force (39+ mph) · NHC probabilities, 5 days
| Location | Earliest TS winds could begin | Chance TS winds | Chance hurricane winds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isla Socorro | Thu 1 PM – Fri 1 PM | 57% | 19% |
| Manzanillo | Wed 1 PM – Thu 1 PM | 52% | 9% |
| L Cardenas | Wed 1 AM – Wed 1 PM | 40% | 3% |
| Barra Navidad | Wed 1 PM – Thu 1 PM | 29% | 4% |
| Zihuatanejo | Wed 1 AM – Wed 1 PM | 27% | 1% |
| Cabo San Lucas | Fri 1 PM – Sat 1 PM | 23% | 3% |
| San Jose Cabo | Fri 1 PM – Sat 1 PM | 18% | 2% |
| La Paz | Fri 1 PM – Sat 1 PM | 11% | 0% |
| Islas Marias | — | 8% | 0% |
| Isla Clarion | — | 5% | 0% |
Time window = the earliest NHC period (CST) with a 10%+ chance that tropical-storm-force winds begin (NHC “earliest reasonable arrival” — be ready before it); “—” = under 10% in every period. Locations and percentages as published by NHC.
Watches and warnings NHC, verbatim
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Where is Polo now?
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
Advisory timeline
- #5a · Mon 6:00 PM CSTPolo continues to intensify and is expected to become a major hurricane on Tuesday — Hurricane, 90 mph
- #4 · Mon 12:00 PM CSTPolo now a hurricane · Forecast to continue to rapidly intensify offshore of Mexico — Tropical Storm, 80 mph
- #3 · Mon 3:00 AM CSTPolo expected to rapidly intensify · Tropical Storm Watch issued for a portion of southwestern Mexico — Tropical Storm, 45 mph
- #2 · Sun 9:00 PM CSTDepression becomes Tropical Storm Polo · Forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane — Tropical Storm, 40 mph
- #1 · Sun 3:00 PM CSTNew tropical depression develops to the south of Mexico — Tropical Depression, 35 mph
Forecast discussion NHC forecaster, excerpt
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.4 West. Polo is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight, with a sharp turn towards the northwest and west-northwest anticipated late Tuesday into Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near or south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.