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Tropical Storm Vance

Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Vance · Forecast to rapidly intensify
Max winds40 mph
Pressure1003 mb
MovementW 7 mph
Position9.4N 99.8W
Next advisory9:00 PM CST

Tropical Storm Vance forecast path & cone map

🌀 Track & cone: NOAA NHC Advisory #2 · issued Wed 3:00 PM CST (track, cone, watches & warnings verbatim) 💨 Map layer: wind gusts · GFS model run Wed 7:00 AM CST (Oct 21, 12z) — one computer model, not the official forecast; the model's storm position and city gusts may differ from the NHC track and probabilities. ⚠️ Weathershot is not an official warning source. For evacuation orders and local instructions follow your national meteorological service and local emergency management (in Mexico: SMN–CONAGUA and Protección Civil).

⚠️ Model gust map, not the official forecast — NHC track & cone on top; sources & who issues warnings below the map ↓

Tropical Storm Vance: NHC forecast track and cone over the GFS wind gust map, Eastern & Central Pacific Tropical Storm Vance from space: GOES-19 GeoColor satellite image (NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, CIRA/NOAA)
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Open full map zoom in, pan, other layers

Wind gusts, mph06121925344353627587106+

Wind gusts · GFS model — one computer model, not the official forecast.

Spaghetti models Model average (TVCN)Corrected model average (HCCA)GFS ensemble mean Computer models, not forecasts — follow the NHC track and your local authorities. Model tracks: NOAA/NHC ATCF guidance, cycle Oct 21, 18Z
Forecast cone (NHC, 5 days) Track · H hurricane · S storm · D depression · PT post-tropical City gusts, mph (GFS, 72 h) Map: Weathershot · GFS 0.25° gusts

Where could Vance make landfall? NHC, verbatim

NHC 5-day chance of tropical-storm-force winds (39+ mph): Manzanillo 19% (#2), 15% (#1) · L Cardenas 13% (#2), 10% (#1) · Zihuatanejo 8% (#2), 7% (#1) · Barra Navidad 6% (#2), 4% (#1)

NHC wind forecast (advisory #2), strongest point each day — changes every advisory: Thu 70 mph tropical storm Fri 110 mph Cat 2 Sat 120 mph Cat 3 Sun 105 mph Cat 2 Mon 100 mph Cat 2

Hazards affecting land · NHC public advisory #2 · 3:00 PM CST (verbatim)

Surf
Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Also active now

Subtropical Storm Josephine →

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When winds arrive tropical-storm-force (39+ mph) · NHC probabilities, 5 days

LocationEarliest TS winds could beginChance TS windsChance hurricane winds
ManzanilloSun 1 PM – Mon 1 PM19%1%
L CardenasSun 1 PM – Mon 1 PM13%0%
Zihuatanejo—8%0%
Barra Navidad—6%0%
Islas Marias—3%0%
Acapulco—3%0%

Time window = the earliest NHC period (CST) with a 10%+ chance that tropical-storm-force winds begin (NHC “earliest reasonable arrival” — be ready before it); “—” = under 10% in every period. Locations and percentages as published by NHC.

Watches and warnings NHC, verbatim

No coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Where is Vance now?

ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

Advisory timeline

  • #2 · Wed 3:00 PM CSTDepression strengthens into Tropical Storm Vance · Forecast to rapidly intensify — Tropical Storm, 40 mph
  • #1 · Wed 9:00 AM CSTTropical depression forms south of southern Mexico · Forecast to rapidly intensify — Tropical Depression, 35 mph

Forecast discussion NHC forecaster, excerpt

At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 99.8 West. Vance is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion with a turn toward the northwest then north-northwest is expected over the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed.