Hurricane Lowell CAT 3
Hurricane Lowell forecast path & cone map
When winds arrive tropical-storm-force (39+ mph) · NHC probabilities, 5 days
| Location | Earliest TS winds could begin | Chance TS winds | Chance hurricane winds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buoy 51003 | Sun 8 PM – Mon 8 AM | 96% | 2% |
| Nihoa | Mon 8 AM – Mon 8 PM | 95% | 30% |
| Niihau | Mon 8 AM – Mon 8 PM | 91% | 8% |
| Barking Sands | Mon 8 AM – Mon 8 PM | 83% | 3% |
| Buoy 51101 | Mon 8 PM – Tue 8 AM | 77% | 11% |
| Lihue | Mon 8 AM – Mon 8 PM | 65% | 0% |
| Honolulu | — | 9% | 0% |
| Joint Base Phh | — | 9% | 0% |
| Necker | — | 6% | 0% |
| Laysan | — | 6% | 0% |
Time window = the earliest NHC period (HST) with a 10%+ chance that tropical-storm-force winds begin (NHC “earliest reasonable arrival” — be ready before it); “—” = under 10% in every period. Locations and percentages as published by NHC.
Watches and warnings NHC, verbatim
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should monitor the progress of Lowell. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Where is Lowell now?
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Advisory timeline
- #45 · Sun 11:00 PM HSTLowell moving north-northeastward and approaching the western Hawaiian islands · Hurricane Warning issued for Kauai county — Hurricane, 115 mph
- #44a · Sun 8:00 PM HSTLowell moving north-northeastward with little change in strength — Hurricane, 120 mph
- #43a · Sun 2:00 PM HSTCategory 3 Hurricane Lowell moving due north · Tropical storm conditions expected on Kauai and Niihau by late Monday — Hurricane, 120 mph
- #42a · Sun 8:00 AM HSTLowell expected to produce heavy rains and possible flash flooding across the entire state of Hawaii over the next couple of days — Hurricane, 125 mph
- #41a · Sun 2:00 AM HSTLowell now moving north-northwestward · Air force reserve hurricane hunters find that Lowell remains a Category 3 hurricane — Hurricane, 125 mph
- #41 · Sat 11:00 PM HSTLowell remains a powerful hurricane as it begins to turn northward — Hurricane, 125 mph
- #39 · Sat 11:00 AM HSTLowell turning toward the west-northwest · Watches will likely be required for Kauai county and portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later today — Hurricane, 145 mph
- #36 · Fri 5:00 PM HSTLowell regains Category 5 strength this afternoon · Interests in the Hawaiian islands should closely monitor its progress — Hurricane, 160 mph
Forecast discussion NHC forecaster, excerpt
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lowell was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 163.2 West. Lowell is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) . A north-northeastward to northward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lowell will move across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, just west of the main Hawaiian Islands, on Monday night. Lowell is then forecast to turn toward the northwest and slow down by early Wednesday after passing the Hawaiian Islands.